It’s draft strategy time. You’ll hear a lot in the coming weeks about teams trying to stockpile picks. Cleveland is putting the word out that they are looking to move down and acquire more picks. Is that the right thing to do? History shows that once you get past the average seven picks per draft, the law of diminishing returns begins to come into play. Maybe for bad teams the formula is different, or maybe it’s not.
People confuse what stockpiling picks means. I spoke with Titans new GM Jon Robinson after his deal with the Rams. He got a boatload of picks in that deal, but he already told me he doesn’t intend to make all those picks. He’s going to package some of those picks to move up and get a player he values. He’s going to sell others off for picks in future drafts. Building up multiple picks in the higher rounds for next year and beyond ensures that the Titans will be in a position to go get their targeted players, and not wait and hope that players fall to them. Robinson learned that from Bill Belichick in New England.
Stockpiling picks, adding average players, and paying them average salary is a staple of the Moneyball model. But that’s historically been a tough way to win football games in the NFL.
Check out the video and I’ll give you the numbers from the last five drafts that reinforce that philosophy.
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